STUDY NOTES - UPSC IAS - TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR)



1. Context

Delhi has not only recorded the lowest Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children per woman, but also the highest decline in the TFR in recent years.The Sample Registration System (SRS) report by the Registrar General of India for 2021, released on May 7, stated that Delhi’s TFR was 1.4 in 2021 against 1.9 in 2011, a 26.3% decline



2. About the Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is a key demographic indicator that helps us understand the average number of children a woman in a specific population will have during her lifetime, assuming current birth patterns persist. It's different from the crude birth rate, which simply measures the number of births per 1,000 people in a population in a given year.

What it measuresThe average number of children a woman will have throughout her reproductive lifespan.
It considers age-specific fertility rates, which means it takes into account the different birth rates at different ages within the population.
Provides a longer-term perspective on population dynamics compared to the crude birth rate.

SignificanceHelps assess population growth trends and predict future population size.
Informs policy decisions related to education, healthcare, social security, and economic development.
Understanding TFR is crucial for analyzing the potential demographic dividend, which refers to the economic and social benefits that can arise from a large working-age population due to declining fertility rates.

CalculationSumming the age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for all fertile age groups (typically 15-49 years) and multiplying by five.
ASFRs represent the average number of births per 1,000 women in a specific age group.

Key TFR levelsReplacement fertility rate: Around 2.1 children per woman, ensures population stability without growth or decline due to births and deaths (excluding migration).
TFR below replacement: Indicates a declining population, with potential implications for workforce size and economic growth.
TFR above replacement: Leads to population growth, requiring investments in infrastructure and resources to support the growing population.


3. What does the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.0 mean?

A Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.0 means that, on average, each woman in the population is expected to give birth to two children over her reproductive lifetime. This value represents the replacement level of fertility, where each generation replaces itself in the population. When the TFR is around 2.0, it indicates that the population is stable, with births balancing deaths over time.

A Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.0 indicates several key thingsAverage Children per Woman: In that specific population, on average, a woman will have two children during her lifetime, assuming current birth patterns remain unchanged. This means that each generation of women is replacing itself, without population growth or decline due solely to births and deaths (excluding migration).
Replacement Fertility Rate: A TFR of 2.0 is often referred to as the replacement fertility rate. This is because it signifies the level of fertility needed to maintain a stable population size over time, considering only births and deaths. However, it's important to note that the exact replacement level can vary slightly depending on mortality rates, particularly child mortality.
Demographic Transition: A TFR of 2.0 suggests that the population is likely in the later stages of the demographic transition. This transition involves a shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. In this stage, populations typically experience a decline in fertility, followed by a decline in mortality, leading to a stabilization of population size.
Global Context: While 2.0 is the replacement fertility rate, the global average TFR is currently around 2.3, indicating slight population growth. However, many developed countries have TFRs below replacement level, which can lead to an ageing population and potential challenges for social security systems and workforce size.
Policy Implications: Understanding the TFR is crucial for policymakers in various areas like education, healthcare, social security, and economic development. A TFR below replacement may necessitate policies encouraging childbirth or attracting immigration to address potential workforce shortages. Conversely, a high TFR might require investments in infrastructure and resources to support a growing population.